July 29, 2026

The Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy decision today, with expectations divided between maintaining the current rate and raising the benchmark interest rate

International

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision today, following the second meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with Kevin Warsh at the helm. Warsh will hold a press conference after the announcement. The benchmark interest rate is currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range, set to remain in place until December 2025. Analysts are divided on whether to expect a 25 basis point increase or maintain the current range, though they consider the latter more likely. Therefore, the focus will be on the decision itself, the content of the announcement, and any potential dissenting votes.

Against this backdrop, the main US stock indices closed yesterday's trading session with mixed results. The Dow Jones led the gains with a 1.0% increase, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The Nasdaq, however, fell 0.2%. Thus, the indices have accumulated year-to-date gains of +9.7%, +8.5%, and +7.0%, respectively.

Regarding the corporate earnings season, after yesterday's market close, Visa reported earnings per share (EPS) of $3.32 and revenue of $11.6 billion, both exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of $3.22 and $11.38 billion. The same trend was observed at KLA Corp, with EPS of $1.05 and revenue of $3.66 billion, and at Seagate, whose EPS reached $5.71 compared to the estimated $5.09. Today, after the market close, reports are expected from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, with EPS estimates of $4.24 and $7.20, respectively, along with those from Qualcomm and Arm, for which EPS is projected at $2.23 and $0.37, respectively.

Regarding bond yields, the US Treasury curve compressed across the board at yesterday's close. Specifically, the 1-year Treasury note moved from 4.11% to 4.07%, while the 3-year note fell from 4.35% to 4.30%. Finally, the 10-year note saw a change from 4.65% to 4.60%.

Lastly, concerning commodities, oil prices declined yesterday. The price of WTI crude fell 4.2% to USD 79.2, while Brent crude dropped 5.0% to USD 83.9. Similarly, gold declined 1.3% to USD 4,023.8 per ounce. In contrast, soybeans rose 0.2%, closing at USD 445.0 per ton.

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