July 31, 2026

Year-on-year headline PCE inflation stood at +3.7% in June, in line with analysts' expectations

International

The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.7% year-on-year in June, in line with analysts' consensus expectations and slightly below the 4.1% increase recorded in May. On a monthly basis, the overall index showed a contraction of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the core PCE index advanced 3.3% year-on-year, also in line with projections and slightly below the previous 3.4% increase, while on a monthly basis it grew 0.1%, below the 0.2% estimated by analysts. Additionally, preliminary data on second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was released, showing an annualized quarterly expansion of 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%.

Major US stock indices closed yesterday's session with widespread gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq gained 2.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%. Year to date, the three indexes have risen 8.6%, 8.1%, and 8.6%, respectively.

Regarding US Treasury yields, the short-term yield remained unchanged at 4.02%. In contrast, longer-term yields declined: the 3-year Treasury note fell from 4.33% to 4.29%, while the 10-year Treasury note dropped from 4.68% to 4.67%.

As for corporate earnings season, Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) reported their second-quarter results after the market closed on Thursday. Apple reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.02, exceeding analysts' estimates of $1.89, with revenue of $109.42 billion compared to the expected $108.86 billion. Meanwhile, Amazon stood out with EPS of $5.75, well above the consensus analyst estimate of $1.81, and revenue of $200.6 billion, also surpassing the projected $196.16 billion.

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