Morning View
The United States and Israel carried out a military operation in Iran over the weekend
International
This weekend, the United States and Israel carried out a military operation in Iran, resulting in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader since 1989. In turn, Tehran's counteroffensive affected several neighboring territories and led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime route through which approximately 20% of the world's oil is transported. Oil barrels are trading at approximately 10% above Friday's price.
This week, the focus will be on the evolution of this conflict, as well as February's employment data, which will be released on Friday. Unemployment is expected to stand at 4.3%, unchanged from January, with 60,000 jobs created during the month. There will also be focus on the release of the Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for both manufacturing and services.
On Friday, the major stock indices fell across the board. The S&P 500 fell -0.4%, while the Nasdaq fell -0.9% and the Dow Jones fell -1.1%. So far in 2026, the indices have accumulated variations of +0.5%, -2.5%, and +1.9%, respectively.
Finally, with regard to U.S. Treasury bond yields, the curve flattened. The 1-year bond yield fell from 3.50% to 3.47%, while the 3-year bond yield fell from 3.44% to 3.38%. The 10-year bond yield also compressed from 4.00% to 3.94%.
Source: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg
U.S. stock indexes fell on Thursday
International
In the United States, the main stock indices fell yesterday. The S&P 500 fell by -0.6%, while the Nasdaq fell by -1.2%, and the Dow Jones remained unchanged. Thus, so far this year, the indices have accumulated variations of +0.9%, -1.6%, and +3.0%, respectively.
Yesterday, Mexico's unemployment rate was published, standing at 2.7% in January, above the 2.6% expected by the consensus of analysts. In Chile, the same data was published this morning, standing at 8.3%, up from 8% the previous month. In addition, retail sales data was also released in Japan, which surprised on the upside with +1.8% year-on-year, above the +0.1% projected.
Today, the Producer Price Index or wholesale inflation in the United States (PPI) for January will be released. The overall measurement is projected at +0.3% monthly and +2.6% year-on-year, while the core measurement, which excludes food and energy, is expected to be +0.3% monthly and +3.0% year-on-year.
Finally, with regard to US Treasury bond yields, the curve compressed yesterday. The 1-year bond yield narrowed slightly from 3.52% to 3.51%, while the 3-year bond yield fell from 3.49% to 3.44%. The 10-year bond yield also narrowed from 4.05% to 4.01%.
Source: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg
