Morning View

In the U.S., September inflation rose +2.4% year-on-year, slowing for the sixth consecutive month

International

In the United States, September inflation was above expectations in all measures. Specifically, it rose +2.4% year-on-year, decelerating for the sixth consecutive month, and +0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, the measurement that excludes food and fuels registered +3.3% year-on-year, slightly above August's result, and +0.3% month-on-month. 

Meanwhile, last week's new claims for unemployment benefits were 258 thousand, the highest performance since the end of June 2023, and above the market estimate (231 thousand). 

The main US stock indexes closed with slight declines in yesterday's trading session, following the release of the better-than-expected September inflation data. While the S&P registered -0.2%, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones each fell -0.1%. Nevertheless, so far this year, the indices have accumulated increases of +21.2%, +21.8% and +12.6%, respectively. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury bond yields compressed in most maturities yesterday, mainly in the short end of the curve. Thus, the 1-year bond closed at 4.21% from the previous 4.25%, the 3-year bond closed at 3.87% versus 3.93% previously, and the 10-year bond ended at 4.07%.

The minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), in which the benchmark interest rate was cut to 3.65%, revealed that the members of the committee value the disinflation process of the last months, ratifying that they will continue to have a gradual stance for the next decisions, evaluating the macroeconomic evolution.

Fuente: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg

U.S. equity indexes remain bullish, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 at new all-time highs

International

The main US stock indexes maintained their upward trend during yesterday's trading session. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 stood out, which returned to record highs, after rising +1.0% and +0.7%, respectively, while the Nasdaq gained +0.6% on a daily basis. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields widened across the curve, with the 1-year bond advancing to 4.25% from 4.19% previously, and the corresponding 10-year ending at 4.07% versus 4.02% the previous day.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September monetary policy meeting, at which the interest rate was cut to 5% from a high of 5.5%, revealed that there was no unanimous decision, as some of the committee members preferred a smaller adjustment. Although the confidence derived from the disinflation process was highlighted, the importance of continuing to make decisions based on the economic evolution was emphasized, in order to preserve the Fed's double mandate: full employment and 2% inflation.

The focus of the day in the United States will be on the release of September inflation, for which a year-on-year increase of +2.3% is projected, and +3.2% in the measure that excludes food and fuel. On the other hand, the minutes of the European Central Bank's last monetary policy meeting will be released. 

In Brazil, September inflation advanced +0.4% monthly and +4.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and accelerating versus August. Meanwhile, in Mexico, retail prices registered +0.05% monthly in September, slightly lower than expected, and +4.6% y-o-y, the lowest in the last 3 months.

Fuente: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg