Morning View

U.S. employment data came in stronger than expected last Friday

International

Last Friday, U.S. employment data for March was released. The unemployment rate stood at 4.3% for the period, marking a decline from the previous rate of 4.4% in February and coming in lower than analysts’ consensus estimates. Meanwhile, job creation for the period also came as a positive surprise, with 178,000 new jobs created—exceeding the expected 65,000—although the previous month’s figure was revised downward from -92,000 to -133,000.

Regarding the conflict in the Middle East, the start of the week is marked by a climate of uncertainty amid a new ultimatum from U.S. President Donald Trump, who extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until tomorrow, Tuesday. Meanwhile, international allies such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are pushing for a 45-day truce to prevent attacks on energy infrastructure. Clashes persisted over the weekend with cross-border attacks affecting petrochemical facilities in both Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Against this backdrop, the major U.S. stock indices closed with slight fluctuations on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The S&P 500 rose +0.1%, while the Nasdaq gained +0.2%, and the Dow Jones fell -0.1%. Thus, year-to-date, the indices have accumulated changes of -3.8%, -5.9%, and -3.2%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened slightly. The 1-year Treasury yield fell from 3.67% to 3.65%, while the 3-year yield dropped from 3.83% to 3.82%. For the 10-year segment, the yield fell to 4.30% from the previous 4.32%.

Soource: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg

Stock indices rise amid hopes of a de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict

International

Yesterday, the conflict between the United States and Iran showed signs of easing following statements by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who asserted that his country has the “necessary will” to end the ongoing war with Israel and the United States, but is seeking guarantees that the conflict will not recur. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he expects the war to end within the next two to three weeks. 

Against this backdrop, the major U.S. stock indices rose significantly yesterday. The S&P 500 rose +2.9%, while the Nasdaq led the gains with a +3.8% increase, and the Dow Jones followed with a +2.5% rise. Thus, year-to-date, the indices have accumulated changes of -4.6%, -7.1%, and -3.6%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened. The 1-year Treasury note’s yield fell from 3.65% to 3.62%, while the 3-year Treasury note’s yield dropped from 3.82% to 3.78%. For the 10-year segment, the yield fell to 4.28% from the previous 4.32%.

Finally, the JOLTS employment survey, which measures open job vacancies, was released yesterday for the month of February. The survey shows that there were 6.882 million job vacancies during the period, which is close to the 6.9 million figure expected by the consensus of analysts. In addition, the February figure was revised upward, from 6.946 million to 7.24 million job openings. In the Eurozone, the February unemployment rate was released, coming in at 6.2%, slightly above the expected figure of 6.1%.

Source: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg