Morning View

In January, the US labor market created 130,000 new jobs, more than double what was projected

International

In the United States, data on the evolution of the labor market in January was released, exceeding expectations. Specifically, 130,000 new jobs were created in the first month of the year, more than double the consensus forecast of 66,000 jobs, and surpassing the 48,000 jobs created in December. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% versus the projected 4.4%, representing the lowest figure in the last four months.

In this environment, the yield curve for US Treasury bonds broadened across all maturities, especially in the short term. Thus, the yield on the 1-year bond closed at 3.45% versus the previous 3.39%, the 3-year bond settled at 3.57% up from Tuesday's 3.51%, and the 10-year bond finished at 4.17% compared to the previous 4.14%.

Meanwhile, the main US stock indices traded mixed yesterday, showing slight changes. While the S&P 500 remained flat, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are up 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq is down 0.8%.

Yesterday afternoon, McDonald's released its Q4 2025 earnings, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $3.12 and revenue of $7.01 billion, exceeding estimates of $3.03 and $6.81 billion, respectively. Motorola and Cisco also reported EPS and revenue above expectations.

Source: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg

Ahead of the January US labor market data, the sovereign yield curve showed widespread compression.

International

During today's trading session, attention in the United States will be focused on the release of data on the labor market's performance in January. Analysts' consensus estimates point to the creation of 67,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.

The yield curve for US Treasury bonds showed compression across all maturities. Thus, the yield on the 1-year bond closed at 3.39% versus 3.42% previously, the 3-year bond stood at 3.51% from 3.56% on Monday, and the 10-year bond ended at 4.14% versus 4.20% previously.

The main US stock indices traded mixed during yesterday's session. The Dow Jones rose +0.1%, reaching a new all-time high, contrary to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which fell -0.3% and -0.6%, respectively. With these performances, so far this year, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 show increases of +4.4% and +1.4% in each case, while the Nasdaq has accumulated a decline of -0.6%.

Regarding the fourth quarter 2025 corporate earnings season, T-Mobile US reported this morning, posting earnings per share (EPS) of USD 2.14 and revenue of USD 24.33 billion, both results above expectations. Once the market closes, McDonald's, Motorola, and Cisco, among others, are expected to report their earnings. 

In the United States, December retail sales—a proxy indicator of activity—were unchanged on a monthly basis, when a +0.4% increase was expected, while year-on-year they rose +2.4%, slowing the pace of expansion for the fourth consecutive month. In other news, Brazil's January inflation figures were released, which were in line with analysts' consensus expectations, at +0.3% monthly and +4.4% year-on-year, the latter slightly higher than in December.

Source: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg