September 17, 2026

The Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday, and it now stands in the 3.75%–4.00% range

International

The decision was in line with the analyst consensus, but the key development was the update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which shifted the projected interest rate path upward across the entire horizon. The median projection for the end of 2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in June; for 2027, it went to 4.1% from 3.6%; and for 2028, to 3.9% from 3.4%. Consequently, the committee anticipates one additional rate hike before year-end, projects no cuts during 2027, and maintains the rate above its long-term level (3.2%) through 2029. This revision reflects a stronger macroeconomic outlook: projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was raised to +2.3% for 2026 and +2.4% for 2027 (up from +2.2% and +2.3%); the unemployment rate forecast was adjusted down to 4.1% from 4.3% for both years; and inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, was raised to +3.7% for 2026, with the core measure at +3.4%.

Major US stock indices posted largely negative performances yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Dow Jones dropped 1.2%, while the Nasdaq remained virtually unchanged. Year-to-date, the indices show gains of 10.3%, 7.1%, and 11.8%, respectively.

Regarding US Treasury yields, the curve showed broad-based increases. The 1-year bond yield moved from 4.36% to 4.41%, while the 3-year yield rose to 4.83% from the previous 4.77%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year bond yield stood at 5.02%, up from 5.00%.

Finally, regarding commodities, oil prices traded lower: WTI fell 3.6% to $102.0 per barrel, and Brent dropped 3.0% to $105.5 per barrel. Gold declined 0.6% to $4,267.0 per ounce, while soybeans rose 0.2% to $485.5 per ton.

Today, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was released. The year-over-year figure came in at +3.2%—below the +3.3% projected by the analyst consensus but above July's +2.9%—while the month-over-month figure rose +0.4%, compared to +0.2% the previous month. Additionally, the core measure, which excludes food and energy, stood at +2.4% year-over-year; this was in line with expectations and below the previous +2.5%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, also in line with analyst forecasts.

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